The weather is still having some fun with us, with pretty wild temperature swings and uncertainty in the forecast models. After all, it is Spring in the Pacific Northwest.

The Pacific High is still weak (1028MB) and relatively flattened out south and west of where it should be. We also have weak surface ridging of high pressure running parallel to the West Coast with a weak trough of low pressure inland east of the Cascades. Note also the weak pressure gradient over the area and how it doesn’t get any stronger on Saturday.

The other part of this atmospheric puzzle is the jet stream, which has gone from a zonal flow to a more meridional flow coming ashore from the south right around Cape Flattery. This combination will give us a weak southerly flow over the Race Course for Saturday, with a breeze that will oscillate from SE to S to SW and back with the usual topographic influences.

Today’s GOES West Sat picture shows a weak cold front off our coast, which is just the start of a series of weak frontal systems that will impact our weather over the weekend with the possibility of some light rain on Mother's Day. Note the cool, unstable air behind the front.

The only constant for the Race Course will be the tidal currents and while the wind may be light and shifty, the tides won’t be bad. In fact, they could be helpful by not keeping you looking for back eddies along the beach. Instead, keep your head out of the boat and watch those tide lines for temporary advantages.

Tidal Current at West Point

0752 Slack

1343 Max Fld .61 knts

1618 Slack

1756 Max Ebb .36 knts

2017 Slack

For the Race Course, it appears we will start with a SE breeze of 4-8 knots, and this will tend to keep you on a favored port tack, while leading you across the Sound. The breeze along the Seattle side will be lighter just don’t get too close to the West side of the Sound as it will be light over there as well. You will want to work to the west to take advantage of the SW breeze when it starts to fill in around 1100-1300hrs. That will make the starboard tack favored from about the line from Restoration Pt to Alki. With the breeze from the SW and the pressure gradient weak, getting too close to Vashon could be a problem, so again, watch your true wind speed as you get close to either shore.

For the Long course boats, expect a dead beat in a SW breeze of 4-8 knots from Pt Robinson to the South end of Vashon. If the sun has been out for most of the day, the larger the light air area will be around the bottom end of Vashon. There is also a back eddy that runs from West to East across the bottom end of the Island, so being in there in less wind and anti-water is a bad combination. The run-up Colvos will be another exercise in staying in the SW breeze, maintaining the max ebb current, and avoiding the corners. Again, not a lot of breeze, probably 5-10 knots with slightly more breeze from the North end of Colvos to the finish.

The Short Course boats will have a similar wind profile without having to deal with the South end of Vashon.

The Cruiser /Racer Course will enjoy 5-8 knots of SE to Blakely Rock and then a jib reach most of the way to Duwamish. Have the barber hauler rigged on the port side before you leave the dock in the morning and be aggressive with your trimming. As you draw even with Alki be prepared for the wind to move aft and get ready to set the kite. At Duwamish, do your gybe to port and aim just to west of West Point to get into slightly more wind.

The scratched and dented crystal ball has the following predictions: The TP 52’s should be around the long course in 7.75 hrs, finishing around 1600-1700 hrs, The J-109’s around in 9.33 hrs finishing around 1800-1845 hrs, and the SunFast 3600 around in 9.2 hrs finishing around 1745-1815 hrs.

The Short Course J-105’s should be around in about 7.75 hrs with the Cal 40 around in 8.25 hrs.

On the Cruiser-Racer Course, the Cal 40 should be around in about 3.5 hours with the Catalina 36 around in 3.65 hrs.