Bruce’s Weather Forecast - VI360 to Ucluelet
This is probably going to be the most exciting leg in all of this year's Van Isle 360. Please make no mistake about it, this leg will be very challenging and perhaps a bit dangerous. Never underestimate the West Coast of Vancouver Island; this is going to be a breezy leg. Safety needs to be at the top of your list, with everyone on the boat clipped in at all times.
All you have to do is look at the Surface Analysis and Surface Forecast charts to see why we will have breeze for pretty much the entire leg to Amphitrite Pt. Follow that with the HRDPS Charts and you’ll notice that the models are very much in agreement, something you don’t see very often. Usually there is less breeze the closer you get to the beach, not so much this year.
7 June Surf Analysis Chart
Even though the Pacific High has weakened and become somewhat less stable, it still has a lobe extending into the West Coast of BC. You combine this with a trough of low pressure running just inland from the coast, and you have a pressure gradient that spells wind. The good news is that it will be a downwind sleigh ride and not an upwind thrash. As you can see, the wind will start at about 10-15 knots at the Winter Harbour start and then build to 20-25 knots by the Brooks Peninsula. From the Brooks south to Amphitrite Pt expect 20-30 knots with higher gusts.
(depending on the size of your screen, you may need to click on each image to see the entire image)
I don’t know what the elapsed time record is for this leg but the TP52s are going to have a blast and Smoke should do the leg in about 10.3 hrs, finishing around 1910 to 1945 hrs.
The rusty and dented crystal ball has the Swan 42CS finishing in about 12.5 hrs, the XP44 in 13.2 hrs, the SC52 in 13.33 hrs, the J111 in 16.5 hrs, and the J109 in 19.2 hrs. All of which presumes no major breakages on the course.
Enjoy the ride, and above all else, be safe.