Bruce’s Weather Forecast - to Victoria
What a difference a couple of days make. This leg of the Van Isle 360, which is 40 miles shorter than the previous leg, will take longer. That is the problem coming into the Strait of Juan de Fuca with a weak Pacific High offshore and a weak low-pressure system inland over eastern Washington. The transition zone from Cape Beale to Port San Juan will be the most challenging. The first boat in each Division to solve the puzzle and get into the steady and building breeze just east of Port SJ will probably be the winner of that Division.
10 June Surf Analys Chart
The pressure gradient over the Straits won’t change significantly until mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow. Tracking the gradient difference from Forks to Bellingham on US VHF Wx will give you a better idea of when the westerly may fill.
If you click on each image, it will expand to full size.
To no one's surprise, the models are not in agreement about what wind you’ll have for the start at Amphitrite Pt. The routing models seem to have you headed SE from the start to try and pick up the NW which is still quite strong offshore. The question is how far it will extend tomorrow morning and many extra miles you’ll have to sail to pick it up.
11 June Course Plot
My favorite charts are the HRDPS forecasts, which show a SE breeze from Pt San Juan extending to the NW past Nootka Sound. This doesn’t change much until noon, and even then it won’t be a firm breeze.
By 1500 hours, it begins to look more promising if you are east of Port San Juan. As I said, you want to be the first boat into the stronger breeze.
11 June 1500 HRDPS
By early evening, the wind in the Strait of JdF will begin to look more like the downwind leg we can have on Swiftsure, and this will hold until dawn on the 12th of June. You will also want to be monitoring the wind reports from Sheringham and Race Rocks. Remember that the wind speed can double from Sheringham to RR so you’ll want to plan your approach, so you are on the port gybe before you get to Race Passage and don’t have to gybe in the middle of RP.
The wind will begin to ease after midnight; however, there should still be enough wind for a pleasant ride into Victoria.
12 June 0500 HRDPS
The tidal current in RP will be interesting as it will be pretty much against you after about 1700 hours tomorrow until about 1100 on the 12th.
Tidal Currents Race Passage
11 June
1750 Slack
2112 Max Ebb 3.4 knts
12 June
0728 Max Ebb 5.4 knts
1125 Slack
The not-so crystal ball has the TP52s taking about 13.3 hours, finishing around 2230hrs, the Swan 42 and the XP44 taking about 15.5 hours, finishing just after midnight, and the J109 in around 0300hrs on the 12th of June.
Have a great race and enjoy Victoria!