Bruce’s Weather Forecast - Blake Island
It won’t be like today, but it won’t be bad. Maybe a little light at the start, but the northerly will fill, and it should be a delightful sail, finishing up at the beautiful Elliott Bay Marina.
As you can see from today’s Surface Analysis Chart, we have a weak ridge of high pressure over the area with a trough of low pressure on the other side of the Cascades. Offshore, a pair of weak cold fronts will move over the area tomorrow morning, with strong high pressure quickly developing behind them. This will bring strong westerly winds down the Strait of JdF and the Strait of Georgia. You can see these fronts in today’s Sat Pic and the wind reports from the Strait of Georgia and the western side of Vancouver Island are showing a very nice pre-frontal SE breeze.
30 May Surf Analysis Chart and 30 May Sat Pic.
As is almost always the case, the models disagree on just how fast the westerlies will fill down Admiralty Island and into the Sound. As we mentioned earlier, it appears to be a bit light for the 0900hrs start; however, by 1000hrs, we should have a decent northerly that should build to 10-15 knots by late morning and hold through the day, with most boats finishing in 3.5 to 5.5 hours. Very civilized.
31 May 0500 and 31 May 1700 Surf Frcst
Tidal currents won’t be much of an issue tomorrow unless you’re finishing after about 1500 hours.
We sent up the YachtRacing.TV drone late this morning and it showed a patchy N-NE breeze over the Center Sound with even a light northerly on the backside of Blake Island. This race is interesting because you can go either way around Blake Island. In the past, it has paid to keep the Island to starboard and give the south end of the Island a wide berth.
Getting to the Island from the starting area can also be interesting because of the transition from the evening drainage breeze from the east-northeast to the northwest breeze that occurs in the mid-to-late morning. It will pay to get to the starting area early to check out the flag at the West Point lighthouse. If it shows ENE breeze, it will pay to start on starboard and hold that gybe until West Point then gybe to port, and you should find yourself aimed roughly at Alki Point. You will hold that gybe until you get lifted at about Four Mile Rock. Then gybe and aim towards the south end of Blake.
Give the south end of Blake a wide berth because it will be light next to the Island, and you can usually see the light area. The other issue is a weak current that runs from west to east along the south side of the Island. About ½ way from the south end of the Island to the Southworth Ferry Terminal is where you will find the ebb from Colvos starting to go up the backside of Blake Island. Carry the kite as long as you can, but be ready for a swift transition to beating in a weak northerly. Resist the temptation to tack to port to get in close to the Island, it will be light in there. The Northerly breeze will shift to the NE as you work up under Restoration Point on Bainbridge Island on starboard tack. Tack back to port at Bainbridge and sail out into the Sound. You should get slowly lifted on port tack, and if you are aimed at Elliott Bay Marina or higher, hold that tack. As you get to the east side of the Sound, you’ll get headed so tack when you can lay the temporary mark south of West Point.
At the temporary mark, you’ll probably set the kite for the short run to the finish, just be ready to go back to the headsail as the breeze can fill out of Inter Bay and become too tight to carry the kite.
The cloudy but dented and rusty crystal ball has the TP52 around the course in about 3.5 hours, the J109s around in 4.25 hours, the Beneteau 36.7 in 4.35 hours, the J105s in 4.45 hours, and the Cal 40 in 4.62 hours. As I said, very civilized.
June 1, 2, and 3, Surf Frcst Chrts
Have a great Race, it won’t be sunny but you will still need plenty of sunblock.
From Jay: Bruce Hedrick has supported sailboat racing in the Puget Sound for as long as we can remember. I talk with many of you that look forward to his weather forecasts, and have stories about sailing with Bruce. I am going to compile a list of your feedback about Bruce and his great contribution to our community — so if you have something to share, email me a your thank you to Bruce, an anecdote, a picture, and/or a story at jaycleon@yachtracing.tv.
Thank you. (and Bruce had nothing to do with this idea)